Speaker
Description
First Name: Abril
Last Name: Sahade
Email Address: abril.sahade@nasa.gov
Affiliation: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
All Authors: Abril Sahade, Cecilia Mac Cormack, Angelos Vourlidas, Judith Karpen and Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla
Abstract: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are major drivers of severe space-weather disturbances, and improving the accuracy of their predictive modeling is essential for effective mitigation strategies. Yet, the complex physics governing CME initiation and evolution, combined with limited observational constraints, continues to hinder reliable forecasting. In this study, we examine how the pre-eruptive magnetic configuration shapes CME evolution and heliospheric propagation. We use physics-based magnetohydrodynamic simulations, covering from the solar surface to 1 au, to analyze the CME that erupted on 26 October 2024. This event, observed both remotely and in situ by multiple spacecraft, including key imaging from Metis and SoloHI and in situ data from Solar Orbiter, provides an excellent opportunity to assess model performance. By varying the initial flux-rope parameters, we evaluate the sensitivity of the modeled CME trajectory, arrival time, and geoeffective impact. Solar Orbiter observations were critical for constraining the CME geometry and identifying the parameter set that yields the best correspondence with the measured evolution. Our results highlight the strong dependence of simulation outcomes on the initial conditions and underscore the importance of multi-perspective observations for improving CME modeling and advancing the reliability of space-weather forecasts.